International Scientific Conference „Business and Management“, 10th International Scientific Conference „Business and Management 2018“

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Influence of macroeconomic factors on stock prices in Poland – cross section and time series analysis
Tomasz Schabek, Nijolė Maknickienė

Last modified: 2018-09-17

Abstract


The purpose of the study is to determine if the macroeconomic factors influence rates of returns from broad index of stocks in Poland. The study investigates stability of relation between macroeconomic and stock market variables in short and long time period. After running time series regressions we check if selected macro variables are still significant in cross-section of stock returns including control variables like price to book value, capitalization and momentum. The study is based on large sample of individual rates of returns and macroeconomic variables describing real sphere of the economy. Mine findings suggest that the short and long term relation is statistically and economically significant although not stable in the both analysed time horizons. Macroeconomic beta parameter (sensitivity to macro variables measure) is not significant in cross-sectional test proving that traditionally accepted variables (in our study only price to book-value and momentum) still better explain the expected returns.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/bm.2018.54


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